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I wish we could get some actual links with relevant data to this question. Everyone quoting Joel is just circular. I want some raw data or verifiable sources!
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11
I kind of felt the numbers in 1800Info's were out, so here's my napkin calculation, I apologise that a lot of this isn't very PC, it's not meant to offend it's just a crude, pragmatic estimate.
Most official estimates indicate the global population (P) is approx 6700M (it's been >4000M since the early 70's). The amount of programmers in what is rather disparagingly referred to as the third world, but basically meaning sub-saharan africa (P*0.14) and agricultural asia can be assumed to be negligible. Generously assuming the entirety of asia (P*0.6) has the same rural/urban distribution as china (58/42), that leaves:
P -= (P*0.14) + (P*0.6*0.42) = 3430M
(the first term is the non-asia, non-africa population)
Of that roughly speaking developed population, 25% are aged under 20 and 10% are retired. Of that adult working age population, a rough estimate of 10% are unemployed or otherwise unable to work.
P *= .65 * .9 = 2006M
Now the estimates get really rough. How many of those adults are non-working and not register unemployed? How many have access to a computer? What qualifies someone as a programmer anyway? Using 1800info's questionable numbrs (30%, 1%) this still leaves no more than 6M.
OTOH, the US government says that 3.1M of a working population of 134M americans describe themselves as programmers (or related). Perhaps you culd just use that as your estimate. :P
@Schalk Versteeg: If the programmer population of South Africa breaks 1% (60,000), then yes they may be statistically negligible. It says nothing about South Africa, or its programmers. That said, I agree, the estimate does seem a bit low.
You would also need to add extra for India: there seem to be a disproportionately large number of programmers there given all the outsourcing that used to go on. That number might perhaps stabilise now as the rush is over and people are less likely to send wholesale programming tasks over there given experience.
As a point of reference, in the latest edition of the book Learning Python which was updated in 2007 and re-published in 2008, the author quotes that they have estimated from web groups and downloads, etc. that approximately 1 million programmers are actively using Python worldwide. It would seem to me that a relatively small percentage of programmers overall are actively working in Python (maybe 10 percent). The range of 5% to 20% is supported by the Language Popularity Page depending on how you want to slice the numbers and assume use of multiple languages by an individual programmer.
This would seem imply that the other estimates in the range of 5 to 10 million seem very reasonable.
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6
A brief estimate (along the lines of a "How many piano tuners are there in Boston" type question). There are approximately 7 billion people in the world. I estimate that 30% of them have access to a computer - this is 2100 million. Of those, I estimate that 1% are software developers according to the definition given above - this is 21 million.
Therefore there are on the order of 21 million software developers in the world. This is about double the estimate given by Joel of 12 million.
30% have access to computers. Of those, 1% are developers. Of those, 70% are fertile, and of those, 2% ever get laid, and 5% of those will have unprotected sex. Evolutionary, developers don't stand a chance against crack smoking teenage-moms.
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4
13% of the population in Denmark have written something in a programming language, according to a recent official national survey, and to me that number seems very realistic. Programming has been taught in most primary schools, and since almost all homes have internet and PCs, most kids also try out programming one day or the other. Most high schools and universities also make their students program, so my guess is, that if you ask the population between 20 and 40, the percentage is a LOT higher than 20.
That sounds awesome, but remember there's a vast difference between "I have written something in a programming language once" and the original question "I am a developer".
Is Danish education representative of the Western world? (I suggest not). Also, "Most high schools and universities also make their students program" is surely not universally true - at least, it doesn't match Italian scholastic programs for non-specializing high schools.
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3
In the latest Stack Overflow podcast, Joel said he's heard there are about 4,000,000, half in the United States and half elsewhere. He also said he thinks that's a generous definition of "programmer," including people who primarily do configuration rather than application development.
When I googled your question I found this: From what I found, about 455,000. That is actualy how many jobs in computer programming. and about 25,000 self-employed computer programmers.
His answer only counts those that earn money by doing programming full-time. What Nick seems to search for, seems to be the number of people who are doing it, but not necessarily as part of their job or as primary income. This generates a much larger number.
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0
The quality of software is often, and in so many aspects, so low that one could be fooled into thinking not enough. But I don't think having more developers would help.
I kinda agree with the estimate of 12 million developers out there. And many of these try to develop something NEW but only few make it worthwhile.
Also, I would guess that if there are 12M software developers, then there are about 11.99M very unique and original blogs on programming ;D :P we all think we're so darn exceptional...
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-1
int c = 0;
foreach(Programmer p in World)
{
c++;
}
Console.Write(c);
//Wait a few years for the program to finish and the answer will come :D
//Let's just hope this program "outruns" the population increasing.
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-4
Lets see, half the people in the world population (6.7 billion) live in poverty, Of 3.35 billion, 30% have access to a computer, 1.005 billion (CIA factbook). half are women out of 1.005 billion, 502 million; likeness to be a programmer (geek) out of a hundred males 1%, 5.02 million give or take for 5% margin for error.